Poll shows Bass ahead of Dems, Kuster still unknown

30 Jul

Charlie Bass isn’t doing well in the polls– but “not well” still translates to “better than the Democrats.”

New data released today from a WMUR Granite State Poll shows Republican hopeful Charlie Bass beating both Democrats in hypothetical matchups by more than 15 points.

Democrat Katrina Swett dropped in favorability in the overall rankings, but still fares better than her opponent, Ann McLane Kuster, who remains unknown by a fairly shocking 88 percent of respondents, despite the candidate’s fundraising success in the state.

Read the full release of data here.

In the hypothetical matchups, it’s clear that Bass’s earlier mantra that he can win against the Democrats isn’t just talk. According to this poll, he takes a clear lead against both Kuster and Swett.

Charlie Bass 47%
Katrina Swett 30%

Charlie Bass 47%
Anne Kuster 29%

Jennifer Horn 34%
Katrina Swett 32%

Jennifer Horn 35%
Anne Kuster 31%

So what do these numbers mean? Here are my thoughts on what the poll says about each candidate:

  • Charlie Bass — The Republican has done a poor job campaigning recently, hasn’t raised a great deal of money and is suffering from the anti-incumbent wave sweeping the country. His unfavorability ranking has jumped about 15 points since the spring. But somehow, he still comes out far ahead of both Democrats in the polls and is now the frontrunner in this race. I’m still not really sure why the lackluster candidate is doing so well, but the numbers speak for themselves.
  • Jennifer Horn — The 2008 nominee who lost to current Rep. Paul Hodes has had to work to overcome her “loser” image. But that work has paid off. While she is still fairly unknown among voters (68 percent are neutral or don’t know enough to say), she is making significant gains and remains competitive against both Democrats in matchups. I’m still not prepared to write her off, and if Bass continues to dip in polls, she could have another shot at the seat in November.
  • Bob Giuda — Considering the media attention this Republican received in response to comments he made about gay marriage, I’m actually surprised Giuda remains so unknown among voters. But his numbers have remained unchanged since April, and 90 percent of respondents had no opinion of him. Ouch.
  • Katrina Swett — While the Democrat remains more competitive against Bass than her opponent, this poll is more bad news for an already embattled candidate. Swett’s unfavorability rating rose about 5 points, and more people now have a negative than positive view of her candidacy. These are fairly unimpressive numbers for a woman who was supposed to be the frontrunner in her primary — and it comes on the heels of battles with her opponent, a disappointing fundraising quarter and media scrutiny of her positions on gay marriage and the Bush tax cuts.
  • Ann McLane Kuster — The numbers in this poll were perhaps most troubling for the Democrat who has taken the state by a storm and seemed to be gaining on Swett. Kuster has set state fundraising records, earned numerous endorsements, and has received props for her grassroots efforts. But she is still unknown by a shocking 88 percent of voters. That’s a significant hurdle to overcome, but she’s raised more money than any other candidate so far. Time for her to start using it.

Note: As I mentioned in my last post, I’m no longer following the race from NH. But I’m still writing about it from afar, and you can follow me on Twitter at @primarywire for daily updates on the second district happenings.

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3 Responses to “Poll shows Bass ahead of Dems, Kuster still unknown”

  1. Struthious Bandersnatch August 7, 2010 at 4:02 pm #

    I don’t know whether you can post about this or not but it appears that the Giuda campaign is attempting to delete any mention of the same-sex marriage kerfuffle you reported from the candidate’s article on Wikipedia.

    This is partly conjecture at this point but it looks like a user claiming to be someone named “Christopher Buchanan” (who personally took a photograph of Giuda holding a Kashmiri orphan in his arms and uploaded it to WP) created multiple “sockpuppet” accounts to build up the Giuda article over the last year and then, when I added some notes about Giuda’s opinions on issues including the same-sex debacle reported here, began using those multiple accounts to try to delete that information.

    I have attempted to start a third-party investigation of the incident here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Sockpuppet_investigations/Jagarolik

    but of course, since it’s all volunteer-based, the investigation may proceed slowly.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Kuster takes the offensive on wars in Iraq, Afghanistan « Primary Wire - August 17, 2010

    […] certainly needs as much press coverage as she can get right now (a July poll showed that 88 percent of voters had never heard of her). But it adds to the existing perception […]

  2. Big Night All Around « Mercury Rising 鳯女 - September 15, 2010

    […] – A real Democrat and actual progressive, Ann McLane Kuster, beat Joe Lieberman’s presidential campaign co-chair Katrina Swett in the New Hampshire Democratic primary for the state’s second congressional district. If Charlie Bass loses the Republican primary, Kuster faces Jennifer Horn, who is a much weaker candidate. […]

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